We need to be clear about the US moral responsibility for emissions and the largescale disruption of the climate system. The data are damning.
The driver of climate change is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Beginning with the end of WWII, the US has pumped more CO2 into the air than any other nation. Although China now produces more emissions per year than the US, our nation is responsible for 20-24% of the cumulative burden. If CO2 stayed in the atmosphere for only a short time, this would not be the enormous problem that it is.
Although Biden has been presented as the climate president, and the Inflation Reduction Act has been a major step forward in controlling emissions, more oil and gas leases have been issued by the US government under Biden than any previous administration.
And this has been partially responsible in US dominance in production of fossil gas and crude oil, but many of these leases are legal claim to future wells.
The IEA warned in 2021 that there should be no new fossil projects if we are to avoid catastrophic climate change.
The global warming in 2023 was the most extreme ever recorded, and 2024 is projected to be worse when all the data are in. On 21, 22, and 23 July, the daily global surface air temperature of the Earth was the warmest in recorded history. Sunday and Monday were the hottest days, and the average global temperature during 2023 too was likely the hottest in over 125,000 years.
While the US continues to expand fossil fuels, China is expanding renewable energy at an astonishing pace that far surpasses the rest of the world combined. In June the installed new renewable energy capacity (electricity) in China surpassed that of coal.
And, some good news – the world is making a big shift to renewables.
The fires in Canada this year have been enormous. Canada evacuated Jasper National Park and the town of Jasper on 23-24 July. One-third of the town burned to the ground. August will likely be catastrophically hot and dry in Canada and parts of the US.
The possibility that Kamala Harris will become president offers hope that US national policy will reverse course and begin to aggressively kill fossil fuels. Because of the enthusiasm around Harris declaring her candidacy, the MAGA party is beginning a smear campaign.
In Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters reviews the historic extreme climate-driven changes that should have triggered societal and economic transformation. Our collective response as a species was to continue with business as usual. Here is his list:
- The $46-billion Midwest U.S. floods of 1993
- The first global coral bleaching event, in 1998 (to be followed by three more: in 2010, 2014-17, and now 2024)
- The 2003 heatwave in Europe, with 70,000 people killed — the deadliest in history
- The hurricane season of 2005, featuring the horrors of a New Orleans savaged by Hurricane Katrina
- The melting of nearly 40% of Arctic sea ice in 2007 — and of over 50% in 2012
- The $88 billion in damage in 2012 from Superstorm Sandy
- The triple-whammy of three Category 4 hurricane strikes in 2017, headlined by Hurricane Harvey’s unfathomable $151 billion deluge over Houston
- The 2018 wildfire that annihilated Paradise, California
- The steady acidification of the oceans, threatening the base of the food chain
- The record loss of ice from the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets, and resulting acceleration of sea level rise
- An alarming 15% slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in recent years, with 36-46% of high-quality models now predicting a major interruption of the circulation in the 2030s
- The 2024 intensification of Hurricane Beryl into a Cat 5 on July 1, over two weeks earlier than any Atlantic Cat 5 had even been observed.
Here are some of the most recent climate graphs. Follow @ZLabe for clear and concise graphs. The first one is from @eliotjacobson. Note the pre-industrial baseline in green.
Note that both poles are showing large sea ice retreat, although it is winter in the Southern Hemisphere.
These temperatures are global. This should be viewed as an “oh shit” graph. Note that deeper ocean warming in the Pacific can shift the precipitation and dry periods generated by the ENSO.
And this from University of Colorado – SLR 2023. Shows that the rate has almost doubled since the early 90s:
My next update will be after classes start at UF – 22 August 2024. Meanwhile, follow the updates at Grist.org